Forget Hackers. GenAI is Coming to Save Us From Ourselves.

Humans are penetrating new domains such as space, and GenAI is at a critical adoption point. Along with these developments, security is increasingly paramount.

Gartner's annual Security and Risk Management Summit series of global conferences is always exciting but seems even more relevant this year, given all the activity happening in these multiple domains.

The conference kicked off in Sydney this week with the analyst group's top cybersecurity predictions for 2024, and they are worth noting as agenda setters not just for the conference but for technology leaders this year.

While all the predictions impact technology, most deal with how humans manage—or mismanage—technology and make their organizations and themselves vulnerable.

Amid the warnings, there are positives. AI, in particular, can reduce human error and rationalize aspects of security management.

Human element

"As we start moving beyond what's possible with GenAI, solid opportunities are emerging to help solve several perennial issues plaguing cybersecurity, particularly the skills shortage and [risky] human behavior," said Deepti Gopal, director analyst at Gartner.

"The scope of the top predictions this year is clearly not on technology, as the human element continues to gain far more attention. Any CISO looking to build an effective and sustainable cybersecurity program must make this a priority."

Gartner began its "top predictions" with a forecast that adoption of the GenAI technology will "collapse the cybersecurity skills gap" and reduce the number of employee-driven incidents, most of which occur through ignorance or error.

"As we start moving beyond what's possible with GenAI, solid opportunities are emerging to help solve a number of perennial issues plaguing cybersecurity."

By 2026, Gartner expects that enterprises combining GenAI with an integrated platforms-based architecture in security behavior and culture programs (SBCP) will result in 40% fewer employee-driven cybersecurity incidents.

That is the good news, but also, according to Gartner, two-thirds of global 100 organizations will extend directors' and officers' insurance to cybersecurity leaders "due to personal legal exposure."

New laws and regulations—such as the SEC's cybersecurity disclosure and reporting rules—expose cybersecurity leaders to personal liability. Because of this, the CISO's roles and responsibilities need to be updated.

Gartner recommends that organizations explore the benefits of covering the role with D&O insurance and other insurance and compensation to mitigate personal liability, professional risk, and legal expenses.

'Malinformation' costs

Gartner says combining AI, analytics, behavioral science, social media, the Internet of Things, and other technologies enables bad actors to create and spread highly effective, mass-customized malinformation.

Battling this malinformation will cost enterprises more than USD500 billion, the analyst group says.

Gartner recommends that CISOs define the responsibilities for governing, devising and executing enterprise-wide anti-malinformation programs and invest in tools and techniques to combat the issue.

By 2026, 40% of identity and access management (IAM) leaders will be primarily responsible for detecting and responding to IAM-related breaches.

IAM leaders often struggle to articulate security and business value to drive accurate investment and are not involved in security resourcing and budgeting discussions.

As IAM leaders continue to grow in importance, they will evolve in different directions, each with increased responsibility, visibility and influence.

"Gartner recommends CISOs break traditional IT and security silos by giving stakeholders visibility into the role IAM plays by aligning the IAM program and security initiatives," the analyst firm says.

By 2027, 70% of organizations will combine data loss prevention and insider risk management disciplines with the IAM context to more effectively identify suspicious behavior.

"Increased interest in consolidated controls has prompted vendors to develop capabilities that represent an overlap between user behavior-focused controls and data loss prevention," Gartner says.

"This introduces a more comprehensive set of capabilities for security teams to create a single policy for dual use in data security and insider risk mitigation."

Power to application owners

By 2027, the forecast is that 30% of cybersecurity functions will redesign application security to be consumed directly by non-cyber experts and owned by application owners.

The volume, variety, and context of applications created by business technologists and distributed delivery teams mean the potential for exposure beyond what dedicated application security teams can handle.

"To bridge the gap, cybersecurity functions must build minimum effective expertise in these teams, using a combination of technology and training to generate only as much competence as is required to make cyber risk-informed decisions autonomously," said Gopal.

Image credit: iStockphoto/Moor Studio